Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Andrew Martinez on the Art of Forecasting

Andrew Martinez is a former Treasure economist and currently is an assistant professor of economics at American University. In Andrew's first appearance on the show, he discusses his career as a forecaster, the current state of forecasting, the intersection of AI and forecasting, the role of the SEP and monetary policy surprises, his work with David on the NGDP Gap measure, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on January 13th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:20 - Andrew's Career 00:08:36 - State of Forecasting 00:20:19 - AI and Forecasting 00:29:34 - The SEP and Monetary Policy Surprises 00:41:07 - Nominal GDP/Expectations Gap 00:54:56 - Outro

Dan Awrey on the Future of the U.S. Payments System in a Digital World

Dan Awrey is a professor of Law at Cornell University and the author of the new book Beyond Banks: Technology, Regulation, and the Future of Money. Dan returns to the show to discuss his new book, the shadow monetary system, the case for markets to correct this problem, Gresham's new law, his proposals for fixing the payments system, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on January 13th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Dan Awrey on X: @DanAwrey Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:16 - Beyond Banks 00:16:04 - Shadow Monetary System 00:26:07 - Can't Markets Solve Payment Problems? 00:28:16 - Gresham's New Law 00:40:27 - Dan's Proposal for Money and Payments 00:55:51 - Outro

Scott Sumner on Monetary Policy Confusion in Our Current Policy Debates

Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair Emeritus of Monetary Policy and the founder of the Monetary Policy Program at Mercatus. Scott returns to the show, to discuss his life post Mercatus, nominal GDP counterfactuals of the pandemic and the Great Financial Crisis, the role of QE in inflation, the fears about Fed independence, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on January 15th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:34 - Scott's Life Post Mercatus 00:05:28 - Nominal GDP Targeting 00:19:53 - Quantitative Easing 00:38:28 - Fed Framework Review 00:42:36 - Fed Independence 01:04:33 - Outro

Tyler Muir on How to Understand the Fed's Quantitative Easing

Tyler Muir is a professor of finance at UCLA. In Tyler's first appearance on the show, he discusses how he became a leading scholar on quantitative easing, what things the Fed can learn in responding to crises, why QE matters, how QE transformed the bond market, the new "Tyler Rule", QE's role in the COVID Pandemic, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on January 8th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Tyler Muir on X: @TylerMuir Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:33 - Tyler's Background 00:08:36 - Financial Crisis and Risk Premium 00:14:40 - Intermediaries and Asset Prices 00:22:18 - QE and Why It Matters 00:28:40 - QE and the Bond Market 00:32:38 - The Tyler Rule 00:37:51 - When Selling Goes Viral 00:41:01 - QE During COVID 00:49:26 - Shrinking the Fed's Balance Sheet 00:55:03 - Outro

Richard Berner on Growth of the Private Credit and the Role of Fiscal Dominance on Treasury Markets

Richard Berner is the former director of the Office of Financial Research and was a counselor of the Treasury Secretary. In Richard's first appearance on the show, he discusses a career that included public service and Wall Street, the fragility of global liquidity, the implications of fiscal dominance, the expansion of private credit, the 2023 SVB banking turmoil, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on January 7th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:57- Dick's Career 00:07:46 - Fragility of Global Liquidity 00:17:29 - Post-GFC Regulations 00:25:29 - Fiscal Dominance 00:36:23 - Private Credit 00:48:09 - Banking Turmoil of 2023 01:01:149 - Outro